Market Review 05 June 2020

by Constantinos Loizou

  • In the Economic calendar of today we can expect some volatility in CAD and USD
  • At 15:30 (GMT) the US Bureau of Labor of Statistics will release the Average Hourly Earnings
  • The above number is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets
  • The result is forecasted to decrease to 1% considering the last month that was at 4.7%
  • At 15:30 (GMT) the Statistics office of Canada will release their Unemployment rate
  • Unemployment rate is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy
  • The result is forecasted to increase to 15% considering the last month that was at 13%
  • Also, at 15:30 (GMT) the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
  • NFP measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
  • The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank
  • The result is forecasted to decrease to -8000K considering the last month that was at -20500K
  • Finally, at 15:30 (GMT) the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce their Unemployment Rate
  • The result is forecasted to increase to 19.8% considering the last month that was at 14.7%

 

On the charts

  • As we can observe on the USD/CAD daily chart, the price is being traded below the downward trendline
  • The price is also below its 2 moving averages, 10 (red) and 20 (black) while 10 days crossed to the downside the 20
  • The price is now at 1.34790, testing the inside support (green line)
  • RSI and Stochastic are both in their extreme areas, indicating strong downside momentum but with the possibility of the over extension
  • Considering the above, if we observe a breakout below the green line, we may see the price moving as low as 1.33200, the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level and an inside support
  • Otherwise, we may see a pullback to 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level, at 1.36000
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